FY2027 H-1B Lottery: How the Weighted Selection System Works

What Changed?

For years, the H-1B cap lottery was a pure random draw — every registrant had roughly the same ~30% chance regardless of salary. The new system, finalized via Federal Register rule on December 29, 2025, introduces wage-weighted selection.

Each registration now receives a number of "entries" based on its wage level relative to the prevailing wage for that occupation and geographic area:

Selection Probability by Wage Level

Based on DHS projections and analysis of registration patterns:

Who Benefits and Who Doesn't

Winners:

• Big tech companies paying market rates — their engineers easily qualify for Level III-IV
• Senior/principal engineers at any company — high salaries naturally reach higher levels
• Specialized roles (ML engineers, quant researchers, senior PMs) — high compensation
• Financial services — banking/finance H-1B salaries tend toward upper levels

Losers:

• IT consulting/staffing firms — historically file at Level I-II wages; selection rates roughly halved
• Entry-level positions — new graduates at standard starting salaries face much longer odds
• Lower cost-of-living areas — positions with nationally competitive but locally high wages may still register as Level I in expensive metros

Strategies to Maximize Your Lottery Chances

1. Negotiate the Highest Possible Base Salary

The difference between Level I and Level II is the difference between 1 and 2 lottery entries. Even a $5,000-$10,000 salary increase could push you to the next level and double your odds.

2. Understand Geographic Wage Arbitrage

Prevailing wage thresholds vary massively by metro area. A $130,000 salary for a Software Developer is:

• Level I in San Jose (threshold: $149K) — 1 entry
• Level II in Seattle (threshold: $117K) — 2 entries
• Level II in New York (threshold: $103K) — 2 entries

For remote workers, the work location determines the wage level. This creates significant strategic considerations.

3. Choose the Right SOC Code

Different SOC codes have different wage thresholds. Work with your employer and immigration attorney to select the most appropriate — and ideally most favorable — SOC code that accurately reflects the position's duties.

4. Avoid Multiple Worksites When Possible

USCIS uses the lowest wage level across all listed work locations. If one location drags down your level, consider whether the position truly requires that worksite.

5. Time Your Filing

OFLC updates prevailing wages annually. New thresholds may shift your level up or down. Check current rates before your employer files.

H-1B Cap Numbers

The annual H-1B cap remains unchanged:

• 65,000 regular cap visas
• 20,000 additional for U.S. master's degree or higher holders
• Cap-exempt employers (universities, research institutions, nonprofits) are not subject to the lottery